thread

Matthew Sheffield @mattsheffield@mastodon.social 2026-11-04 02:10:04 UTC

RE: https://mastodon.social/@mattsheffield/117549584947001191

The New York Times election projection site is matching my prediction below exactly right now.

Just wanted to point that out ;-)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/03/us/elections/results-needle-senate-house-forecast.html

Matthew Sheffield (@mattsheffield@mastodon.social) Attached: 1 image Let's see *your* Senate predictions for tomorrow. No tossups allowed. The winner receives a web browser cookie. Mine is below. You can make one here: https://electindex.com/mapper/#:~:text=Senate%202026,35 #uspol mastodon.social

Matthew Sheffield @mattsheffield@mastodon.social 2026-11-04 02:10:41 UTC

Senate races
53

DEM. LEAD
OR WIN

44

REP. LEAD
OR WIN

3

TOSSUPS

Key Senate Races
Race
Percent of votes inVotes in
NYT win probabilityNYT win prob. NYT estimate of final voteNYT est. of
final vote
S.C. 75% 94% Dem. D +4.2
Mich. 14% 80% Dem. D +6.9
Minn. 0% 79% Dem. D +6.9
Texas 42% 77% Dem. D +4.7
Maine * 6% 76% Dem. D +3.3
Kan. 42% 70% Dem. D +3.2
Ohio † 49% 67% Dem. D +2.8
Alaska * 0% 55% Dem. D +1.3
Iowa 5% 52% Dem. D +0.3
Neb. 24% 61% Rep. R +2.1
Miss. 7% 71% Rep. R +4.6
La. 9% 86% Rep. R +9.3
Ark. 23% >95% Rep. R +15
Ala. 6% >95% Rep. R +17
Tenn. 43% >95% Rep. R +16
Idaho 0% >95% Rep. R +20
Ky. 75% >95% Rep. R +12
Mont. 0% >95% Rep. R +21